In-Depth MMA odds calculations, UFC 85 examples
In this article we’ll take another shot at explaining the odds as simple as possible. I’ve had a hard time wrapping my head around the sportsbook / odds system myself, but this is my try to explain it once and for all.
For example, this is the odds for Hughes vs Alves right now:- Matt Hughes -220
- Thiego Alves +170
This tells us that if we want to bet on Matt Hughes winning, we’ll have to bet $220 to win $100. If we want to bet on Thiego Alves winning, you have will to bet $100 to win $170.
This tells us various things:- With the minus before his odds (-220) Hughes is the Favorite
- With the plus before his odds (+170) Alves is the Underdog
I know, this can feel like it’s missing logic, but this is how it is, so learn it. It will make more sense in a couple of minutes.
This is how I like to think about it to remember it more easily.- With the minus before his odds (-220) Hughes gives us Less money back for a win then betting on Alves. So we can remember the minus as “less money”. Less money back on a bet logically leads us to he’s the favorite. Less risk, less money back.
- With the plus before his odds (+170) Alves gives us More money back for a win then betting on Hughes. So we can remember the plus as “more money”. More money back on a bet logically leads us to he’s the underdog. More risk, more money back.
To exactly calculate how much money we get back is a bit trickier—but it’s still rather basic math.
The odds are easy to follow if we bet exactly “according” to them. In the above example, betting $220 on Hughes will give us $100 profit, easy enough to wrap our heads around. But what if we have a max of say, $50 to risk on betting, how much will that give you back if we win?
And the same goes for Thiego, if you want to spend max $50 dollars betting on him, how much will we get back if we bet and win on him?
The betting formula
As we said, betting $220 on Hughes and winning gives us $100, so betting $100 would naturaly give us less. The answer is that we’ll get $45. Why $45?
Well, the basic formula is:
YOUR_PROFIT / AMOUNT_TO_BET = ODDS_RATIO <—Learn it!
If you just learn this one formula, (and what -220 and +170 means) you’ll be able to calculate the potential profit or whatever betting you’re about to do.
With the above Hughes example:- YOUR_PROFIT = $100
- AMOUNT_TO_BET = $220
—> $100 / $220 = 0.45
This gives us ODDS_RATIO = 0.45
Betting $50 on Matt Hughes
Now If we instead want to bet $50 and calculate YOUR_PROFIT, that gives us:
YOUR_PROFIT / $50 = 0.45 which is the same as YOUR_PROFIT = $50 * 0.45
Leading us to YOUR_PROFIT = $22.727272 = $23
Betting $50 on Thiego Alves
With the same YOUR_PROFIT / AMOUNT_TO_BET = ODDS_RATIO
And with the above Thiego Alves odds:- YOUR_PROFIT = $170
- AMOUNT_TO_BET = $100
—> $170 / $100 = 1.7
This gives us ODDS_RATIO = 1.7 so we set AMOUNT_TO_BET = $50
YOUR_PROFIT / $50 = 1.7 which is the same as YOUR_PROFIT = $50 * 1.7
Leading us to YOUR_PROFIT = $85
A profit of $85 means we’ll get our $50 back + $85 in pure profit.
You can also check the this against Live UFC 85 Odds Calculator. (This URL will probably point to something else After UFC 85 is over)
